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2024-12-14 11:19:53

Ecb governing Committee Escriva: it is logical to further cut interest rates at the next monetary meeting. If the basic scenario remains unchanged, interest rates will continue to be cut. The general idea yesterday was to continue to cut interest rates by 25 basis points. The lack of vitality in the European economy is a challenge.The Bank of France expects France's economy to grow at zero month-on-month in the fourth quarter. The Bank of France, BNP Paribas, recently released the results of its monthly economic survey, and it is expected that France's gross domestic product (GDP) will grow at zero month-on-month in the fourth quarter of this year. (Xinhua News Agency)Institutions: The prospect of sanctions has caused supply concerns, and oil prices are bound to record an increase in Zhou Du and an increase in Zhou Du. The prospect of more severe sanctions on Russian and Iranian countries has caused market concerns about supply disruption. US Treasury Secretary Yellen said that the United States is looking for ways to curb Russia's income, and Trump's national security candidate vowed to put the greatest pressure on Iran. These two factors boosted the benchmark oil price by 3% to 4% this week. In addition, political turmoil in the Middle East and other factors have also provided support for oil prices. However, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said yesterday that the global market will still face oversupply next year.


Zhaowei, Shenwan Hongyuan Securities: Macroeconomic policies pay more attention to cooperation with key areas such as stable employment and scientific and technological innovation. zhaowei, chief economist of Shenwan Hongyuan Securities, said that in terms of macroeconomic regulation and control, this meeting continued the tone of Politburo meeting of the Chinese Communist Party in December, emphasizing "being more active and promising" and "improving the overall effectiveness of policies". The meeting mentioned "strengthening the coordination of fiscal, monetary, employment, industrial, regional, trade, environmental protection, supervision and other policies and reform and opening-up measures", on the one hand pointing to the follow-up fiscal and monetary policies or strengthening coordination and supporting steady growth; On the other hand, it points to "forming synergy" among multiple departments, and macro policies pay more attention to cooperation with key areas such as stable employment and scientific and technological innovation. (CSI Taurus)Market news: Israel said that the IDF will stay on the Syrian side of Mount Hermon for several months.Qin Xinghua, Anneng Logistics: Under the general tone of "Striving for Progress in Stability", the logistics industry is welcoming new opportunities for development. The Central Economic Work Conference was held in Beijing from December 11 to 12. The conference analyzed the current economic situation and deployed economic work in 2025. Qin Xinghua, founder, CEO and president of Anneng Logistics, said that this meeting has made various plans for economic work next year, and a comprehensive and systematic layout is of great significance to the overall improvement and sustainable development of the economy. The meeting put forward key measures such as "solidly promoting high-quality development", "expanding domestic demand in all directions" and establishing the implementation of "more active fiscal policy" and "moderately loose monetary policy", and finalized the general tone of "striving for progress while maintaining stability" for economic development in 2025. It is foreseeable that the economic and social development situation will be stable and good next year, and the high-quality development trend will become more prominent. "As an important link in the economic development chain, the logistics industry will usher in new development opportunities under this economic background." Qin Xinghua was encouraged by the development of the enterprise.


Bank of Communications International: For the first time, it covers the "buy" rating and target price of HK$ 5.86 given by the rich industrial trust. The Bank of Communications International published a report that the rich industrial trust has multiple investment advantages and stock price drivers, including stable profit prospects, low valuation, further interest rate cuts and potential inclusion in Shanghai-Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect, which are all beneficial to the valuation of REITs. For the first time, the bank covers the purchase of wealth and gives a "buy" rating with a target price of HK$ 5.86. Bank of Communications International believes that the rental income prospect of Zhifu Industrial Trust can remain basically stable. At the same time, the current share price corresponds to a dividend of 9.4% in 2025, and the gap between the dividend yield and the yield of 10-year US bonds is about 1.1 standard deviation lower than the long-term level. It is considered that the current valuation is still far below its long-term average level, and has reflected most of the worries of the retail market in Hong Kong. The report continued that although high interest rates will still have a negative impact on this year's earnings, it is expected that the dividend per unit of Zhifu will resume growth from next year under the condition of continuous interest rate reduction. It is expected that the dividend per unit will decrease by 10%, increase by 3.8% and increase by 4.1% from 2024 to 2026 to 36.34, 37.71 and 39.26 Hong Kong cents respectively.Alipay sells cryptocurrency funds? Originally an indirect investment in a product of Huabao Fund, the subscription has been suspended. Recently, some netizens found that Huabao Fund promoted a fund product issued by Huabao Fund in Alipay-QDII-FOF-LOF C (hereinafter referred to as "Huabao Overseas Technology C"), promoting "riding the wind to encrypt the rising market of currency" and "the representative of subversive innovation technology: cryptocurrency". According to the report of Warburg Overseas Technology C in the third quarter of this year, among the top ten funds with the highest fair value at the end of the reporting period, five were only index funds managed by Ark Investment Management under Cathy Wood, the "Mujie", accounting for 73.12% of the total. Looking through the archives of ARK Management Fund, the reporter found that ARK Innvonation ETF (hereinafter referred to as "ARKK"), the largest heavyweight of Huabao Overseas Technology C, was invested in Coinbase, a cryptocurrency exchange. ARK Next Generation Internet ETF (hereinafter referred to as "ARKW"), the second largest warehouse, invests in GBTC(Grayscale Bitcoin Trust) or investment tools such as Bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrency ETFs. ARKW also suggests the risks related to the indirect investment of funds in cryptocurrencies. In addition, Coinbase ranks third among ARKW's heavy stocks. The reporter logged on to several consignment platforms such as Ant Fortune, Licaitong, Tiantian Fund, China Merchants Bank, Snowball Fund and found that the product was sold on the above platforms, but from December 11th, the large subscription of Class A shares and Class C shares was suspended, and the daily limit for each person was 1000 yuan RMB. However, on December 13th, Huabao Overseas Science and Technology Stock Securities Investment Fund announced that it would suspend subscription and regular fixed investment business. (21 Finance)UBS: Reduce Adobe's target price from $550 to $525, and maintain a "neutral" rating.

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